The property market, much like nature, moves in predictable cycles. Think of it like the seasons: Spring (Recovery), Summer (Boom), Autumn (Slump), and Winter (Recession). Each phase has its own rhythm, characteristics, and opportunities—and just like seasons, no stage lasts forever.
Understanding where we are in the property cycle can help you make smarter, more confident decisions—whether you’re a first-home buyer, a seasoned investor, or planning to sell.
The property cycle is a repeating pattern of market behaviour. It reflects changes in property values, interest rates, buyer demand, construction activity, and economic indicators over time. By identifying the current phase, you can align your strategy to maximise growth or minimise risk.
Let’s explore each phase of the cycle in detail.
Spring signals a turning point. After a market downturn, confidence begins to return. House prices start rising, sales volumes increase, and days on the market begin to shorten.
Rental demand increases as more people enter the market, often reducing the supply of rental properties. This pushes rents higher. At the same time, banks tend to ease lending restrictions, making finance more accessible. Construction activity also picks up as developers gain confidence.
Spring is a relatively good time to buy—just before house prices really pick up. Buyers who act early in this phase often benefit from future capital growth as the market gains momentum.
Spring Indicators:
Summer is when the property market is running hot.
This is the boom phase, where prices rise rapidly, competition is intense, and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) drives many buyers to act fast. Homes sell within days, auctions are packed, and the media is full of success stories.
As property values outpace rents, rental yields tend to fall. Meanwhile, inflation begins to rise, prompting central banks to lift the official cash rate. Commercial banks follow suit by increasing mortgage rates and tightening lending policies.
Buyer activity starts to slow down—but if you’ve been planning to sell or exit, this is often the ideal time to take advantage of high prices and strong demand.
Summer Indicators:
As the heat fades, so does the market.
In Autumn, higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions lead to falling buyer demand. Properties stay on the market longer, and sales volumes decline. New builds started during the boom begin hitting the market, causing an oversupply.
With less urgency and fewer buyers, prices may stagnate or begin to fall. Buyers become more cautious, and sellers must adjust their expectations.
Autumn Indicators:
Autumn is a good time to negotiate. For buyers, there may be opportunities to purchase well below peak pricing.
Winter is the most challenging part of the cycle—but also where the greatest opportunities can arise.
Confidence is low. Some developers exit the market due to financial pressure or insolvency, leading to project delays or cancellations. As unsold homes hit the rental market, rents may stagnate or fall due to increased supply.
The job market can weaken, and properties may sit unsold for extended periods. However, there is a silver lining: as inflation drops back into target ranges, central banks begin cutting interest rates. Commercial banks follow with more competitive mortgage offers, and lending criteria start to loosen again.
This shift signals the return of confidence and the early signs of Spring.
Winter is for the bargain hunters—but only for those who are prepared. Those with finance ready, strong negotiation skills, and a long-term mindset can secure high-value properties at discounted prices.
Winter Indicators:
Just like in nature, the property market doesn’t follow a perfect script—there are sunny days in winter and cool days in summer. But the broader cycle remains consistent and reliable.
By knowing what phase we’re in, you can:
No matter where you are in your property journey, understanding the cycle gives you the edge. The most successful investors and homeowners don’t just react to the market—they anticipate it.
So ask yourself:
What season are we in—and how are you preparing for the next one?
🏡 If you’d like to find out more about how to invest with the cycle and make informed property decisions, join our upcoming property workshop.
You’ll learn how to read the market, build a strategy, and take the next confident step on your property journey.
© Copyright 2025 Lucia Xiao Property Investment Mentor. All Rights Reserved.
© Copyright 2025 Lucia Xiao Property Investment Mentor. All Rights Reserved.
