If you’re waiting for Auckland property values to double again, you might need to be patient—but not for long. Based on current trends, I expect we’ll see a full recovery back to the 2021 peak levels by 2027 or 2028. Why? Because the market cycle has essentially reset around 2020/2021, and what we’re seeing now is a classic bottoming-out phase.
Several key factors support this outlook and could accelerate the rebound:
The recent surge in demand for New Zealand’s new Active Investor Plus visa says it all—214 applications in just three months, potentially injecting $1.3 billion into our economy. This signals growing global confidence in New Zealand as a stable investment destination. With more capital flowing into the country, it’s only a matter of time before property becomes a preferred asset class once again.
With a general election on the horizon, the current government will be under pressure to stimulate the economy. If job growth and GDP figures continue to stagnate, we’re likely to see more aggressive economic support or housing-related initiatives to regain voter confidence. Such measures often have a flow-on effect on buyer activity and property values.
Here’s the latest: Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has confirmed that a change to the 2018 foreign buyer ban will be announced this year. Though NZ First isn’t “softening” its stance. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/foreign-buyers-ban-winston-peters-says-change-to-be-announced-this-year-denies-nz-first-softening/EQLCLN7JPRETDHMEWRVPWBG4HM/) The party plans to frame it so that only serious economic investors (likely those putting in tens of millions) can purchase residential property, while keeping protections for first home buyers. In effect, this means a potential reopening of high-end Auckland property to wealthy overseas investors, another catalyst for an upward push.
Also, should the National Party win the next election, and crucially, without relying on NZ First—there’s a strong chance we’ll see policy changes that allow overseas buyers back into the market. Their last campaign proposed allowing foreign buyers to purchase property over $2 million. If implemented, this would likely breathe new life into the top end of the Auckland housing market and lift overall sentiment across the board.
The government’s recent update on its bond issuance plans tells an interesting story. While they plan to reduce issuance by $2 billion over the 2025/26 and 2026/27 fiscal years, they’ve also indicated an increase of $4 billion for 2027/28 and 2028/29.
https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2025/05/new-zealand-government-budget-may-2025/. This could signal expectations of stronger economic growth in the latter years—potentially driven by infrastructure and housing projects. Of course, this depends on who wins the election, but it’s a signal worth watching.
From 1st July 2023, Australians of Kiwi descent who have lived across the Tasman for four years can now apply for citizenship. Once they’ve secured that blue passport, many may reconsider their long-term future—and for some, that means coming home. Whether it’s to raise families, invest in property, or simply return to familiar roots, this shift could subtly increase demand in Auckland over the next few years.
In my view, we are currently sitting at the bottom of the Auckland housing market. Prices are stabilising, and early indicators suggest the worst may be behind us. https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for “the right moment,” this could be it. The fundamentals are aligning for a steady, possibly accelerated, recovery. And as history has shown us—those who buy at the bottom tend to be the ones who reap the biggest rewards.
Whether you’re a first-home buyer, investor, or planning to return from overseas, now’s the time to start mapping out your next move. If you’d like a personalised strategy session, feel free to get in touch.
© Copyright 2025 Lucia Xiao Property Investment Mentor. All Rights Reserved.
© Copyright 2025 Lucia Xiao Property Investment Mentor. All Rights Reserved.
